A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
